San Marino Must Lose to Romania to Maintain Slim Hopes of World Cup Qualification
Colin Millar for The Athletic:
However, there is an important caveat: Romania are in San Marino’s qualification group, and are currently third, behind second-placed Bosnia & Herzegovina and first-placed Austria. Romania play away to Bosnia on November 15, before hosting San Marino on the final matchday, and whether Romania beats Bosnia to a top-two finish — with Austria looking likely to keep first place — is likely to be decided by goal difference.
In this scenario, San Marino’s best interests would be served not only by losing to Romania but by losing by as many goals as possible to ensure Romania secure a top-two finish at the expense of Bosnia and therefore create a play-off opening for itself. After hosting Romania, Bosnia faces first-placed Austria in its final qualification match on November 18, when San Marino plays Romania. Austria, meanwhile, face fourth-placed Cyprus on November 15 before its game against Bosnia.
If Bosnia gets favourable results against Romania and/or Austria, San Marino’s slim chances of World Cup qualification will dwindle.
San Marino will also hope that Czechia, Sweden and Northern Ireland maintain a top-two group finish to boost its own hopes. North Macedonia and Wales are in the same group, so one will miss out on a play-off spot, while Moldova has lost all five group matches and therefore cannot mathematically qualify through its group.
San Marino can therefore only make a play-off spot if one or fewer of Romania, Czechia, Sweden and Northern Ireland miss out on a top-two finish in their groups.
San Marino are one of the few teams I follow closely each international break because it’s a tremendous story. A country surrounded by Italy, the fifth-smallest country in the world, with a population of 34,000 people could qualify for the World Cup. Before the goal was to score, and they had trouble scoring so losing heavily shouldn’t be difficult.
Referencing: Why San Marino must lose (heavily) to maintain slim hopes of World Cup qualification